Explainer Who is running in Taiwan’s presidential election and what does it mean for mainland China?
More than 19 million Taiwanese voters will go to the presidential polls on January 13 in an election that is expected to shape cross-strait relations as well as US-China relations.
Eight years after Tsai Ing-wen of the independence-leaning Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) was first elected president, the stakes are particularly high.
Beijing has stepped up military, political and economic pressure on the self-ruled island in the past year and warned there is a risk of war if the DPP stays in power.
It sees both the DPP’s candidate, Vice-President William Lai Ching-te, the front runner in the presidential race, and his running mate Hsiao Bi-Khim, as dangerous “separatists” and “troublemakers”.
Taiwan is also the “most dangerous” issue in China’s relationship with the United States, Chinese President Xi Jinping told his US counterpart Joe Biden in November.
Who are the candidates in the presidential election?
The three presidential candidates are the DPP’s Lai, Hou Yu-ih from the Kuomintang (KMT) and Ko Wen-je from the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP).
Lai is the front runner, with Hou second and Ko third, according to polls.
Lai has long been seen as “deep green”, or as having a radical pro-independence stand. He once described himself as a “pragmatic worker for Taiwan independence” but has moderated his position, saying he does not intend to pursue independence if elected.
Hou, from the mainland-friendly KMT and New Taipei City’s mayor since late 2018, has said that if he wins he will abide by the Constitution of the Republic of China (ROC). The ROC is Taiwan’s formal name and its constitution enshrines the one-China concept, which Beijing sees as the foundation for any dialogue.
The KMT is considered the most Beijing-friendly party of the three, and has sent several leaders to the mainland over the past year.
Ko is another Beijing-friendly candidate and heads the TPP, which he founded in 2019.
Ko has said he believes Taiwan and mainland China are a family. During his stint as Taipei mayor from 2014 until last year, he promoted closer exchanges and cooperation with the mainland, an approach he sees as best for cross-strait ties.
Who is leading the presidential race?
Lai from the DPP is the front runner but the gap in approval ratings with the KMT’s Hou narrowed briefly in late November, after the KMT’s efforts to form a joint ticket with the TPP broke down and support drifted away from the TPP.
What is Beijing’s position on the race?
Beijing has become more vocal on election-related issues as polling day has neared.
In late December, Beijing said it was suspending tariff cuts from January 1 on 12 Taiwanese products covered by the cross-strait Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement, attributing its decision to the DPP’s stand on independence.
The same week, Beijing lifted an import ban on grouper fish from the island, an issue raised by the KMT during a visit to mainland China. The fish were prohibited in June 2022 on the grounds that they contained banned chemicals and high levels of antibiotics, a claim denied by Taiwanese authorities.
Who supports each party?
According to the polls, the DPP holds the biggest edge among non-college-educated voters.
The KMT’s support is more evenly distributed among voters of various levels of education but the party struggles to appeal to younger voters. The TPP has more support from college-educated voters.
Traditionally, the DPP has a southern stronghold of Tainan, where sentiment leans towards independence. Lai was mayor of Tainan from 2010-2017 and built a reputation for good governance and pragmatic problem solving in the city.
Of the three parties, the KMT has the most frequent cross-strait interactions.
How do Taiwanese voters view mainland China?
The latest survey in Taiwan indicates that a big majority see the mainland as a growing threat to national security.
Beijing has intensified its military operations around Taiwan, including frequently sending multiple warplanes and warships and staging live-fire drills near the island. Major military drills were carried out after then US House speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taipei in August 2022, and after Tsai met then US House speaker Kevin McCarthy during a stopover in California in April.
In response, Taipei is trying to boost its defences, including extending mandatory military service from four months to a year and pursuing asymmetric warfare tactics.
Surveys also indicate that well over half of respondents believe the United States would definitely or might come to Taiwan’s defence if mainland China attacked. While the US – the island’s informal ally and biggest arms supplier – does not recognise Taiwan as an independent country, it is legally bound to arm Taiwan so it can defend itself.
Beijing views Taiwan as its own territory that must be reunited, by force if necessary and has repeatedly warned against US interference in Taiwan. Most countries, including the US, do not see Taiwan as an independent state.
At their summit in November, Xi demanded directly of Biden that Washington stop arming Taiwan. He also denied Beijing had imminent plans for military aggression.
