Since late October, military surveillance has observed a dramatic increase in activity in the waters separating the People’s Republic of China and the Republic of China (or Taiwan). As aircraft, drones, warships and submarines swarm, intercepted communiqués from within the Chinese military reveal messaging consistent with preparations for an all-out war.

And then it happens: The Chinese Navy and Air Force launch a full-scale assault across the Taiwan Strait, with a barrage that rivals the “Shock and Awe” campaign waged by U.S. forces during Operation Iraqi Freedom in the early days of March 2003.

This is not a scene from history but a potential scenario from the future. It is an excerpt from a simulation my organization conducted recently in our midtown headquarters in Manhattan.

For us, a nimble and effective response starts long before the crisis begins, by convening our crisis team in advance to pressure test our systems and our processes. Tabletop exercises — richly detailed, anxiety-inducing crisis simulations — are the way we do this.

From terror attacks to blizzards to power blackouts to hurricanes to pandemics, a seemingly never-ending stream of crises has taught us powerful lessons, the most important of which is the need to overcome our complacency about these external threats.

The world today is a powder keg, and events in the Middle East have lit the fuse. Chinese President Xi Jinping has ordered his People’s Liberation Army to be ready for war, and top U.S. military officials have assessed that China could attack Taiwan as early as 2025. Rather than be won over by the smiles and warm words at the recent APEC Summit in San Francisco, we must see this threat for what it is. Instead of debating probabilities, we must concentrate on consequences.

Aside from the carnage among the civilian population and the widespread destruction of infrastructure, the economic impacts would be devastating. These include the closure of vital shipping lanes, a global semiconductor shortage and even a global depression.

If and when this happens, what would it mean for your organization, and what should you be doing about it?

To answer these questions, you need to learn the lessons that only the crisis can teach. Because the real thing can be messy, simulations are the best way to do this. This means convening your decision-makers around a tabletop exercise. The more richly imagined, skillfully conceived, carefully planned, and tightly executed it is, the more useful it will be for learning.

The U.S. and its allies acted swiftly and within hours placed embargoes on China with immediate effect. All imports from China and Taiwan were halted. The South China Sea, normally teeming with container ships, is devoid of all but warships. Three months after the start of the Taiwan invasion, the global economy is in tatters as supply lines grind to a halt. Prices skyrocket as companies and consumers compete for scarce resources. The outlook is grim.

As you engage this scenario, the outlines of your inventories will begin to take shape, and the supply issues you faced during the COVID-19 pandemic will seem like child’s play in comparison. But now, armed with this insight, mitigation becomes possible.

The same is true for all of the other issues that will be revealed through this process, from staffing shortages to cyberattacks and distressed financial markets to staff wellness concerns.

Social media has increased the velocity of events, and they now move 10 times faster than you can, so you must anticipate. In the words of hockey great Wayne Gretsky, you have to “skate to where the puck is going to be.”

The nature of this catastrophe is that it will affect everybody at the same time. When the container ships stop, your options will have long since run out. You need to be thinking three steps ahead because your opportunity to build your stockpiles, adjust your processes, and supplement your resources, is now.

As a crisis manager, it is my job to do all of these things, to make sure that the people who rely on me will have no regrets. So that rather than being shocked when it happens, we can think and act in the moment, to do what is in the best interests of our teams and ourselves.

Kelly R. McKinney (kelly.mckinney@nyulangone.org) is the assistant vice president for Emergency Management and Enterprise Resilience at NYU Langone Health in New York City and a former deputy commissioner at the New York City Office of Emergency Management. He is the author of “Moment of Truth: The Nature of Catastrophes and How to Prepare for Them” published by Post Hill Press (2018).