The world is watching as Taiwan is set to go to the polls this weekend.
The self-governing island faces a pivotal choice as it replaces its President Tsai Ing-wen – closer relations with China or continuing to tread its own path.
The election also has regional implications with neighbours like Japan watching closely.
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But what do we know about the polls? And why does it matter to the world?
Let’s take a closer look:
What do we know about the polls?
A bustling, vibrant democracy of 23 million, Taiwan is separated by a narrow 180-kilometre strait from communist-ruled China, which claims it as part of its territory.
Hard economic realities will be at play as voters head to the polls Saturday, though the relationship is complicated.
The economy has slowed since the pandemic, with growth in 2023 estimated at only 1.4 per cent.
That partly reflects inevitable ups and downs in demand for computer chips and other exports, and a slowing of the Chinese economy.
But longer-term challenges such as inequality, housing affordability and unemployment are especially vital for younger voters.
Taiwan president Tsai Ing-wen is stepping down due to term limits. Reuters
Unfortunately, with Chinese president Xi Jinping refusing to renounce the use of force to bring Taiwan under its control, the threat Beijing poses has dominated the race to the polls.
Frontrunner and Vice President Lai Ching-te of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) – which positions itself as the defender of the island’s sovereignty – has called for voters to “choose the right path” to keep Taiwan’s democracy strong.
As per CNN, Lai’s running mate Hsiao Bi-khim served as the country’s envoy to Washington.
China has branded Hsiao as a “stubborn secessionist.”
His main opponent, former police chief and mayor Hou Yu-ih says Lai is a danger for cross-strait relations, and touts his Kuomintang (KMT) as the only party able to keep the peace with China.
And rousing anti-establishment sentiments is the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP), which has emerged as an unexpected political force with leader Ko Wen-je presenting himself as a path out of the two-party deadlock.
As per CNN, Ko’s kitchen table pitch and focus on jobs and homes have found a receptive audience with younger voters.
Ko has also promised to split the difference between Lai and Hou on China – neither being too antagonistic towards Beijing nor overtly friendly.
The China question
Taiwan’s freewheeling political discourse has ranged from stagnating wages to social housing programmes, but China remains top-of-mind for voters.
The island moved from an autocracy under the nationalists who fled China in 1949 following the Communist Party’s takeover to a democracy in the 1990s, and has never looked back.
“We just want to maintain our way of life and principles,” said 65-year-old Chen at a recent DPP rally in southern Taiwan.
The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has called Lai a “troublemaker” whose election would “only bring risks of fierce war,” as per Time Magazine.
The launch of a Chinese satellite that flew over Taiwan, prompting an erroneous air raid alert, sparked a political storm on the island on Wednesday about China’s motives only days out from presidential elections.
This came a day after China threatened new trade measures against Taiwan – which in turn accused Beijing of “economic coercion.”
On Tuesday evening, China’s commerce ministry said it was looking into further steps to suspend tariff concessions on products including agriculture and fishery, machinery, auto parts and textiles from Taiwan, following up on such a move made against some petrochemical products last month.
“Taiwan authorities have not taken effective measures to lift trade restrictions on China. Instead, they have engaged in political manoeuvring in an attempt to plant blame and evade responsibility,” the commerce ministry said in a statement.
China views Taiwan as its “sacred territory” and has never recanted the use of force to annex the island Image Courtesy Agencies
Taiwan’s government has accused China of an unprecedented campaign of election interference, using everything from military activity to trade sanctions to sway the vote towards candidates Beijing may prefer.
China has cast the election as a choice between war and peace, and says interference allegations are “dirty tricks” from Taiwan’s ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) to try and win support.
Despite this, Lai has vowed to try to engage with China.
“Peace is priceless and war has no winners,” Lai told reporters at a news conference. “Peace without sovereignty is just like Hong Kong. It is fake peace.”
China’s growing show of military force has also hardened Taiwan’s people against Xi’s rhetoric that both sides of the strait are part of “one family”.
Today, less than three percent of the population say they feel Chinese – an evolution in identity from 1992 when about a quarter said they were Chinese.
A piece in The Print noted that this is a major source of trouble for Chinese leadership.
“Xi Jinping has notably shifted from advocating peaceful reunification to implying the potential use of force,” the piece noted.
Why does it matter to the world?
Because Taiwan is a critical link in the world’s supply chains.
It is home to a powerhouse semiconductor industry, producing 90 percent of the world’s most advanced microchips – tiny silicon wafers needed to power everything from coffee machines to cellphones to missile launch pads.
This makes it a critical cog in the global economy, particularly as the United States and China have clashed over technology exports surrounding semiconductors.
The United States has warned Beijing against making any moves to influence the election.
The official, briefing reporters on condition of anonymity, said Washington does not take sides in the elections and does not have a favourite or preferred candidate.
“We oppose any outside interference or influence in Taiwan’s elections,” the official said. “Regardless of whom is elected, our policy toward Taiwan will remain the same and our strong unofficial relationship will also continue.”
“I will note that the election is part of a normal, routine, democratic process. Beijing will be the provocateur should it choose to respond with additional military pressure or coercion,” a Biden administration official said.
The official warned that disruption to peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait “would seriously damage the global economy and the spillover would affect all economies around the world.”
As per BBC, any clash between China and Taiwan could see the US – with its massive navy and bases – being drawn into the conflict.
Taiwan imports nearly all its energy, leaving it vulnerable to blockades.
A blockade of the island would turn the key Taiwan Strait into a chokehold, affecting the transport of 50 per cent of the world’s containers and costing the global economy at least $2 trillion, according to Rhodium Group.
Time Magazine quoted Bloomberg Economics as saying a Chinese invasion that brings the US – Taiwan’s most important international backer and arms supplier despite the lack of formal diplomatic ties with the island – into a conflict as potentially costing the world economy $10 trillion.
Experts say the US being drawn into any conflict between Taiwan and China could cost the world economy trillions.
A piece in The Print argued that the outcome would “profoundly shape China’s actions, the trajectory of cross-Strait relations, and the dynamics between China and the United States.”
Sarah Liu of the University of Edinburgh said the whole world has an interest in preserving the island as “one of the strongest democracies in Asia”.
“The world has recognised the importance of preventing an authoritarian regime to grow drastically as it has implications for the world’s safety and democracy,” she said.
Victory for DPP would “determine the cross-strait dynamics in the next four years, which will in turn affect the stability of Taiwan Strait and… the region,” said Ivy Kwek of International Crisis Group.
“Rising tensions… could potentially lead to direct conflict between the two major powers –- US and China.”
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 sent a frisson of fear across the world, while China’s clampdown on Hong Kong has further alarmed the Taiwanese public.
“It’s best… to just maintain the status quo for everyone’s peace,” said KMT supporter Huang Shi-Chang, 67.
“Let the Chinese Communist Party live their life, and we live ours.”
What’s the likely outcome?
Time Magazine quoted the final poll taken before the election as saying that the DPP remains in poll position.
Meanwhile, the KMT is in a close second and the TPP is in the third spot.
But the odds remain against the DPP.
As per Time Magazine, no party has won three straight elections in Taiwan.
“In democratic politics, after a certain duration of one party being in power, they’re going to face exhaustion and frustration and the urge to give somebody else a chance to see what they can do,” Shelley Rigger, an East Asia expert at Davidson College in North Carolina and author of Why Taiwan Matters told the outlet.
As per BBC, analysts expect something of a divided government.
“Despite the possibility of political gridlock, some are hopeful that a more experienced DPP and a less powerful KMT could strike the right balance between spurring the economy and keeping peace with China,” the piece noted.
Experts also say the chances of China invading Taiwan in the near future are slim.
“The prospect of such a monumental cost for a war with uncertain outcomes, combined with China’s already sluggish economy, diminishes the likelihood of an imminent conflict,” The Print piece said.
But don’t expect Beijing to lay off.
“Nonetheless, Taiwan faces a significant threat from China. Regardless of which opposition party—KMT or Taiwan People’s Party—triumphs, China’s pressure will persist, albeit with varying strategies,” the piece concluded.
With inputs from agencies
