William Lai Chang-te made history on Saturday by securing a third term in the presidency for a party for the first time in Taiwan’s democratic era.
While achieving a little over 40 per cent of the vote for his Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) was a decent performance, it falls far short of the two majorities achieved under Tsai-Ing Wen, the outgoing president.
Ms Tsai, whom Mr Lai served as vice-president for the past four years, will be a hard act to follow. In the final rally of the election held in Taipei and attended by 200,000 people, Ms Tsai said that, however people felt about her time in power, every day there had been at least some progress.
Her management of the pandemic attracted praise globally. So too did her navigation of the transition from Donald Trump to Joe Biden, and the constant application of pressure by Xi Jinping in Beijing.
Mr Lai and his running mate, Hsiao Bi-khim, have already been roundly denounced by Chinese diplomats, and Mr Lai’s position on cross-strait relations is a clear cut one.
Taiwan has its integrity and autonomy, and stands, as he said in the first speech he made after being elected, on the side of democrats, and against autocrats.
Despite his strong words, his problem will be the same one all his recent predecessors have struggled with.
For all the threat and challenge that China poses, it still accounts for 45 per cent of Taiwan’s trade. Business with it is the lifeblood of the island. Almost 250,000 Taiwanese still reside, part of the time at least, across the strait.
Cost of living challenge
In this respect, Taiwan faces a dilemma. Its greatest economic partner is also its most serious security problem. Attempts over the last few years to diversify have proved only partially effective.
This economic dimension matters because, if there was one other theme coming through the 2024 elections, it is the frustration of the young at continuing high property prices, and squeezed cost of living conditions.
Tiny flats in downtown Taipei can go for well over £1 million, and disillusionment with the inability or unwillingness of governments to do anything about this issue started long ago.
But discontent has risen to such a peak now that the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) , the country’s third party and contesting a national election for the first time, made a solid showing. Some 26 per cent of the electorate that turned out cast their vote for its leader Ko Wen-je, a former doctor, who has managed to make a clear bond with younger, first-time voters.
In the long term, that may well be the most important outcome of this election. The two well-established parties, the DPP and the Nationalist KMT, clearly have work to do in order to reconnect with young voters.
The TPP have every reason to come back to fight for another day. They may well go on to become the opposition in the future. But for now, the DPP continues to rule the roost.
Kerry Brown is a professor of Chinese studies at King’s College London. His book, Taiwan: Why an Island in the East China Sea will Dictate the Global Future, comes out this August with Penguin.
