World closely watching elections – 台北時報 Feedzy

By Sumit Kumar

As the Jan. 13 presidential and legislative elections near, political parties have intensified their efforts to ensure a victory for their candidates and secure a majority in the Legislative Yuan. While the Democratic Progressive Party’s (DPP) presidential candidate, Vice President William Lai (賴清德), has said he would follow the domestic and foreign policies set by President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文), the Chinese Nationalist Party’s (KMT) candidate, New Taipei City Mayor Hou You-yi (侯友宜), has focused on promoting peace with China. At the same time, Taiwan People’s Party Chairman and presidential candidate Ko Wen-je (柯文哲) is trying to attract young voters by promising a better model of governance.

However, the presidential election should not be viewed through the lens of promoting good governance, independence or unification. The eight years of Tsai’s presidency has already cemented Taiwan as a strong, functional democracy in the world. Therefore, a major question is how and to what extent this presidential election will help Taiwan consolidate its sovereignty and manage regional peace, security and development.

This, coupled with other factors, has attracted global attention on the election. Of course, one country that is closely observing the upcoming polls is India. Under the leadership of Tsai and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the two nations have infused new momentum in their relationship, having witnessed the expansion of cooperation in several areas of shared interests. At the same time, Lai has also indicated that he would continue to work with India.

Therefore, New Delhi expects the return of the DPP to the presidency to help push that cooperation to new heights. On the other hand, some Indian experts say that the victory of an unfriendly party could lead to a cold phase in the relationship. That would enable China to take a more assertive posture against India, given the already tense ties between New Delhi and Beijing, as well as make some in India examine how the country would respond if China attacked Taiwan. This, in turn, further highlights the interest with which India is watching the elections.

Of course, any government in Taiwan would find a friend in India. With its rise as the fifth-largest economy in the word, India can provide a large market for Taiwanese goods and services, helping it reduce its economic dependence on China. Taiwan has also started capturing the imagination of Indians, thanks to excellent outreach programs from Taiwan’s de facto embassy — the Taipei Economic and Cultural Center in New Delhi.

This was evident in the huge turnout to watch Taiwanese movies screened in New Delhi this month. Unlike in the past, people in India have also begun to recognize Double Ten National Day and celebrate Taiwanese festivals and culture.

Moreover, Taiwan is no longer a pariah in India. Indians are showing solidarity with Taiwanese in their fight for independence and they want a strong Taiwanese government to protect the life and freedom of its citizens.

India is also keenly observing Taiwan’s ability to effectively deal with Chinese disinformation efforts to influence its presidential election. Consequently, India could seek Taiwan’s help in stopping China’s interference efforts in its general election.

For the US, a Lai victory would underline the limits of China’s influence and its illegitimate claim over Taiwan. This in turn would not only play a pivotal role in checking Beijing’s autocratic adventurism, but would also help Washington manage its predominant position in the region and beyond.

The nomination of former representative to the US Hsiao Bi-khim (蕭美琴) as the DPP’s vice presidential candidate has further highlighted the US’ interest in Taiwan. Moreover, the reflection of Taiwan’s assertiveness of its independent identity through the presidential election would embolden Washington to accelerate engagement with Taipei. On the hand, the return to power of the KMT might weaken ties with the US, resulting in serious national security concerns for Taiwan and the Indo-Pacific region.

Japan, Australia, the EU and other countries have their reasons for wanting a stable and strong Taiwan. This in turn would help the international community expedite trade and commerce with the nation. A strong Taiwan would also help maintain peace and security in the South China Sea, through which more than one-fifth of global trade passes.

The international community also wants Taiwan to remain a strong pillar in the global supply chain. In this context, it is heartening to hear Lai say that “while semiconductors and technology industries are Taiwan’s strengths, they are also Taiwan’s responsibilities toward the international community.”

A KMT government in Taiwan would also encourage the US and other major powers to pitch vociferously for Taiwan’s inclusion in regional economic organizations, such as the WHO and other international institutions.

The US, India, Japan and Australia are also mindful that an independent and resurgent Taiwan is needed to realize the success of regional groupings, including the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue and the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework. Thus, US President Joe Biden in a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) last month cautioned Beijing not to interfere in Taiwan’s election to ensure voters choose their next president without outside influence.

While Lai leads his opponents with a 35 percent support rating in the polls, division among opposition political parties might further benefit the DPP. Only time will tell if this presidential election enables Taiwan to carve out a special place for itself in international politics or show that Taiwan’s identity as an undeterred, trusted and living democracy created during Tsai’s tenure could be overshadowed by China. In both cases, Taiwan’s domestic politics, its relations with India, the US and other countries, and regional security would witness a major reorientation.

Sumit Kumar is assistant professor in the Department of Political Science at the University of Delhi, India, and a former Ministry of Foreign Affairs visiting fellow at National Chengchi University.